Construction of Dwellings

Construction of Dwellings

Kevin Young Insights 0 Comments

Construction Of Dwellings

The number of finance commitments for the construction of dwellings for owner occupation (trend) fell 0.1% in June 2016, following a fall of 0.3% in May 2016. The seasonally adjusted series rose 2.1% in June 2016, after a fall of 2.0% in May 2016.

They show the crash in investment housing. APRA brought their ridiculous restrictions in on the 9th of December. Clearly it would have taken a while for its effect to be felt. But we can certainly see there is a substantial dive in finance commitments as a result of the APRA action that we predicted.

A recent headline in the media: “Stamp duty slump points to a cooling property market and budget headwinds.” This is as we predicted from APRA’s foolishness back in December 2014.

What has the result been?

  • Construction DOWN
  • Employment DOWN
  • Government revenues DOWN

This graph measures the number of new constructions from 2010 to 2016:

too-few-bananas-20160901

Bank-funded owner-occupier constructions (graph below) shows a downward trend kicking in much earlier, peaking around March 2014. So nine months after the owner-occupier has pulled out of construction, reducing job numbers, APRA crashed in over the top of that downward trend and also caused a downward trend with investors. A double whammy for both the construction industry and for jobs and demonstrating that the RBA was unaware what was right under its nose.

banks-20160901

The number of commitments for owner-occupied dwellings financed by non-banks:

non-banks-20160901

Happy Investing,

Regards,

Kevin Young
Property Club Founder

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